FX markets

Daily Market View 16-02-2026

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1:02

USD crawls upwards despite lower than expected CPI print

1 Minute Market Rundown

US CPI released at 2.4% on Friday, lower than expected
Move suggests Fed could cut in March, although blowout non-farm payrolls figure caps chances at 10%
Gold recovers half of its rally regardless, as whilst cuts may not come as soon as March, 2.4% CPI allows movement later in year

USD-

Despite some early reservations on the day, with traders positioning for a hot print, US price pressures have eased to their lowest since May of last year. With the US congress voting to remove all tariffs on Canada just last week and Trump likely to lose both houses in the November mid-terms, we could see a quicker end to the tariff fiasco than expected.

Screenshot 2026-02-16 080503

Plenty to look for this week, with proceedings taking a distinctly British tone with UK unemployment and inflation releasing Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. Unemployment is expected to stay around 5.1%, whilst average weekly wages fall more aggressively from 4.5% to 4.1% growth. UK inflation is expected to drop quickly from 3.4% to 3%, its lowest rate since last March.

All of this suggests that GBP is the one to watch this week, should releases go as expected, it could be a rough week for the Pound.

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