FX markets

Daily Market View 22-10-2025

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1:29

Pound craters as UK inflation holds steady

1 Minute Market Rundown

Headline UK inflation prints at 3.8% allowing for bets of a cut from the BoE in December to rise from 8% to 70%.
Pound softens 0.3% across the board in early hours trading as a result.
Eyes start to turn towards US inflation data on Friday.

GBP-

Relief at last for the UK as inflation halts its once seemingly inexorable rise to spare the BoE's blushes just before hitting 4%. I must point out, today's data did not suggest that UK CPI has in anyway fallen, instead, it has simply stayed at 3.8%, instead of rising to 4% as most expected.

Screenshot 2025-10-22 084750

Food prices actually showed disinflation for the first time since June, although restaurants and hotels topped their previous again to stop the overall figure falling. Caution is advised when allowing hope to run away with you that the BoE will suddenly start chopping down its rate at lightning speed.

7 out of 9 MPC members (voting body of BoE) voted to hold rates steady last month, admittedly at a time when inflation was increasing, but I suspect it will take more than one good release to really change views at the BoE.

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