Daily Market View 01-05-2026

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Daily Market View 01-05-2026
1:12


Prospect of 6.2% UK inflation triggers Sterling rally

1 Minute Market Rundown

  • Bank of England and European Central Banks hold their interest rates steady at 3.75% and 2% respectively 
  • Sterling trades at 10 week high against the Dollar and a 4 week high against the Euro as BoE unveils nasty set of forecasts
  • 8-1 (hold-hike) vote share more dovish than expected, but market still prices in a 60% chance of a hike from the BoE in June

 



GBP-

Just when it seemed like the Pound would be on the receiving end, if anything yesterday, Sterling found away to stage half-percent rallies against its most major peers, mostly on account of the three scenarios the BoE laid out regarding how they see the inflation, employment and growth situations in the UK depending on how the war impacts the economy.

Screenshot 2026-05-01 084218




Despite the more dovish than expected vote share and what was, if you remove the above projections, a reasonably neutral statement. I still believe that 3 interest rate hikes this year is beyond the Bank of England, although when this dam of realisation busts, its difficult to say. Scenario C, the most drastic of all that assumes a Gulf war extending into the second half of the year. 

Markets Today

*Please be aware the below rates represent the market rate at 7:30 AM, contact your Caxton dealer on check online for a live quote

Screenshot 2026-05-01 090420

 

Today's Economic Calendar

Major Economic Releases (All times in GMT)


12:00 - Bank of England Interest Rate Decision 
13:15 - European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision 

 
 
 

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