FX markets

Daily Market View 25-11-2025

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1:21

Markets quiet ahead of tomorrows big budget

1 Minute Market Rundown

Pound rises as broad FX volatility drops ahead of the UK budget tomorrow
US retails sales mark one of the few major releases today, with the market gradually increasing bets of a December Fed cut
Little news right ahead of budget on what it may contain, we maintain the expectations we discussed during the pre-budget webinar

USD-

The Pound is performing surprisingly well despite the budget looming large tomorrow. UK Guilt yields have been falling into the meeting, easing pressure on public finances ahead of the actual announcements, this has led to the best return for UK debt holders since 2023.

Across the pond, USD is stalling after a stellar 3 months, more and more suggest a correction incoming as its value seems out of sync with the realities of the present US economy.

Screenshot 2025-11-25 074512

Much is made of retail sales in the US, despite the fact that it can be misleading, with it being seen as a good litmus test of the sentiment and pockets of US consumers. But with the Christmas holiday season approaching the situation becomes more complex. There's likely only another 3 weeks before traders start logging off until the new year, cratering volume and volatility.

There will likely be big shifts ahead of that as everyone positions for the new year and so these few weeks will be vital for opportunities.

Markets Today

*Please be aware the below rates represent the market rate at 8:00 AM, contact your Caxton dealer or check online for a live quote.

Today's Economic Calendar

Major Economic Releases (All times in GMT)

13:30 - US Retail Sales

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