FX markets

Daily Market View 24-10-2025

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1:26

Market Prepares for US CPI figure as Trump Dismisses Carney from Trade Talks

1 Minute Market Rundown

Markets prepare for US release as tariff and service inflation expected to raise rate of price rises.
UK retail sales figures release considerably stronger than expected, only for little Pound reaction.
US figures seem to only likely be able to produce a bearish reaction in USD given how keen the Fed is to cut regardless.

USD-

Today's US CPI reading is why it is always important to understand the context within which we exist. Usually a major release, CPI data has been essentially relegated to the second tier of releases as the Fed has become ever more deaf to the serious upside risks posed to the CPI figure.

Screenshot 2025-10-24 090559

Above shows US inflation data on a 1 year basis, with that increase in price pressures following May originally promoting a very hawkish reaction from the Fed, which has now cleaved to Powell being confident of two more rate cuts this year. So even if CPI comes in over expectations, its unlikely the Fed will pivot, if it comes in softer, an even bigger chance of a 0.50% cut will be priced in, softening USD further.

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