FX markets

Daily Market View 10-12-2025

Listen to this daily briefing

1:38

Fed's Big Day Arrives

1 Minute Market Rundown

USD softens ahead of major Fed decision, despite the fact that the Fed is 95% expected to cut.
Real question surrounds the dot plot projections to come out and where the Fed expects long term rates.
Implied volatility remains high and most bets are against the Dollar.

USD

At last, the final Fed interest rate decision of this year has arrived and it brings with it a sense of change. Naturally, I have discussed at length the potential ramifications of Powell's exit from the Fed in May of next year and how it will likely bring lower rates quicker, when Trump's nominee takes the reins.

Screenshot 2025-12-10 075250

USD isn't taking this well early today, with traders clearly feeling a sense of foreboding for the Dollar, despite the fact that USD has risen an average of 0.20% in the 5 days following 5 of the 6 last Fed meetings.

Powell has reason to be hawkish this time around too, strong jobs data in the last Non-Farm payrolls meeting and the general lack of data, owing to the Gov. shutdown, means that the Fed is making decisions in the dark.

Still, Fed members may be wanting to keep Trump onside or to ingratiate themselves to the likely dovish new broom incoming, potentially spelling Dollar weakness into the end of the year.

Markets Today

*Please be aware the below rates represent the market rate at 8:00 AM, contact your Caxton dealer or check online for a live quote.

Today's Economic Calendar

Major Economic Releases (All times in GMT)

19:00 - Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

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