Daily Market View 10-11-2025

Potential US Government Shutdown End Gives Hope to Belated Traders

Volatility is nectar for analysts, without it we have nothing to write about, but besides this, it also makes it very difficult to estimate the Dollar's path into year end. Unless we get hard data again, it remains mostly guesswork, as it has been for the last two months. The shutdown costs the US government about $15bln a week in lost revenue and knock on effects. 

There has been no Federally provided welfare for November, air traffic controllers are sounding the alarm over understaffing and naturally, Government workers in key areas are furloughed. Whether a solution can be reached this week depends on lawmakers, but momentum does seem to be building, much to the markets relief. 

GDP-

The Pound is gathering some momentum in the early hours of this morning, after being pummeled for the last two weeks. Although, this seems likely short lived, given we have the UK employment report out tomorrow.

That data is expected to see unemployment rise from 4.8% to 4.9%, within the BoE's expectations, but still not great. Indeed, the BoE expects the UK to tip over the 5% barrier in early 2026, before dipping again (although why they decline to say). At the same time, wage growth is again expected to slow, which combined with the increase in unemployment would satisfy 50% of the conditions Bailey laid out last Thursday for a rate cut in December.

The second condition was a more established fall in inflation, which is both a tall order and a figure we will not get until the 19th of this month.

*Please be aware the below rates represent the market rate at 8:00 AM, contact your Caxton dealer on check online for a live quote.

 

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