Caxton | Daily Market View

USD Points Lower Following Jobs Report, Inflation to Follow on Thursday


1 Minute Market Rundown

  • USD has volatile Friday as US Non-Farm Payroll figure suggested the economy only adding 187,000 jobs in July
  • Wage inflation rises, whilst unemployment drops to 3.5%e
  • Inflation figures releasing later in the Week could see further USD weakness

USD-

The Non-Farm payroll release is always one of the most key events in a month, well, from a markets stand point at least! And this months figures giving insight into the condition of the US labour market n July did not disappoint. Overall, 187,000 new jobs were added, below trend but don't let that mislead you.


Screenshot 2023-08-07 071610.png


The overall figure was below that 200k key psychological level yes, but the US already had a very low 3.6% unemployment rate, that also fell to 3.5%. At a certain point an economy simply runs out of people to perform new jobs and that's likely to happen if unemployment is still at a 1969 low.


Wage growth remained stubborn, unchanged at 4.4% average hourly wage growth YoY, suggesting that the US jobs market remains to be a, if not the, most aggressive and unresolved aspect of US inflation.)


Screenshot 2023-08-07 072415.png



In terms of its impact on the Fed, the release was to middling to change any minds, the jobs figure is down, but so is unemployment, to a multi-decade low. Wage growth is high and resilient, but officials will want to wait for the full inflation release on Thursday before committing to a position.



Today's Economic Calendar

-12:00 No Major Releases

Markets This Morning

Screenshot 2023-08-03 232416.png

Rates correct as of 7:30am GMT



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