Daily Market View 21-10-2025

GBP-

If good economic news out of the UK were your only form of sustenance, you would be starving, as yet another monthly spending figure from the treasury blows past its estimates. Public sector net borrowing rose to £20.22 billion in September, the highest level of September spending since 2020 and the initial lockdown.

The ONS pointed the figure at higher debt servicing costs, higher public spending and a higher welfare bill in particular and given what we have heard in the leadup to the budget, we can assume all three items to worsen, not improve.

The Pound is taking the news poorly, 0.15% down against the Dollar in the early hours and only doing slightly better against the Euro because of France still not having a budget.

All of this suggests an even more painful budget to come on the 26th of November as Reeves tries to plug an estimated £33 billion gap in public finances. Given Labour's behaviour so far, we can assume that it will lean more heavily on taxes rather than spending cuts to plug the gap, compounding the low growth outlook that has hobbled the UK for nearly a decade.

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