FX markets

Daily Market View 11-12-2025

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1:24

The Fed Cuts as Expected, Although Statement isn't as Hawkish as Expected

1 Minute Market Rundown

Fed cuts by 0.25% for the third consecutive meeting, but Powell doesn't strike his usual hawkish approach.
Dot plot projection also remains unchanged with the average of members expectations unchanged at 3.25%.
Expectations of rate by 2027 drop modestly off the back of meeting.

USD

The Fed's final meeting of the year didn't prove as eventful as many first expected. However, it did not all go as expected either, the shift lower in rates was well priced in at the start of December, it was always going to be what the Fed said rather than what it did.

Screenshot 2025-12-10 075250

Dot plot projections remained unchanged at pricing in only one or two cuts next year, despite the fact that layoffs in the US this year seem higher than they were in 2008. Moreover, we did see two members diverge from the group to rebel against the cut.

Yesterday's meeting did very little to bring clarity, in fact it just made it more confusing, we'll have to wait for jobs data next week for more information.

Markets Today

*Please be aware the below rates represent the market rate at 8:00 AM, contact your Caxton dealer or check online for a live quote.

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