FX markets

Daily Market View 11-11-2025

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1:26

UK Unemployment Rises to 5%

1 Minute Market Rundown

Joblessness in the UK reached 5% in October, ahead of the Governments and Bank of England's estimates.
0.2% jump from 4.8% is biggest of the year and brings overall rate to highest since February 2021.
Chance of a Bank of England cut in December rises from 71% to 84%.

GDP-

As anticipated, the latest raft of UK jobs figures were weak, even weaker than expected, worsening tax receipts for the Government ahead of the budget on the 26th. Moreover, with wage growth in the private sector also falling from 4.4% to 4.3%.

Screenshot 2025-11-11 075347

Both of these data points are important as they satisfy entirely Bailey's need to see more labour market weakening to justify cutting in December, as he laid out last week. A pause in inflation would then aid further, although we have to wait until next week for those figures.

The Pound has responded as you would expect, down around -0.1% against the Dollar (mostly as USD weakens also in response to rising chances of the Government opening) and a more severe -0.25% against EUR.

Markets Today

*Please be aware the below rates represent the market rate at 8:00 AM, contact your Caxton dealer on check online for a live quote.

Today's Economic Calendar

Major Economic Releases (All times in GMT)

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