Daily Market View 08-12-2025
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The Fed Meeting on Wednesday is Likely to Dominate Early Thought
USD
We're coming to the embers of the year, but still have enough fuel to potentially raise a flame before everyone goes home for Christmas. Three Central Bank meetings this week, with the Fed naturally the most important in terms of its range of potential consequences.
A cut of 0.25% seems very likely, despite the improved jobs outlook seen in the September jobs figures, although owing to the backlog in data create by the shutdown a month ago, the October and November figures will come next week on Tuesday.
USD remains on the backfoot and worse yet for its bulls, this Wednesday's meeting will also see dot plot projections from Fed members regarding what they expect in the coming year regarding rates. These projections have aired on the dovish side all 3 quarters of this year they have released and so we expect USD to grow even weaker once they release.
The Bank of Canada meets Wednesday also, followed by the Swiss National Bank on Thursday. Both are expected to hold rates steady after an aggressive cutting campaign this year.
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