FX markets

Daily Market View 07-11-2025

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1:33

BoE Holds at 4%, Leaves Door Open December Cut

1 Minute Market Rundown

BoE hold rates today with MPC vote share at 5-4, 1 vote more dovish than expected.
GBP rallies on the day, but opens softer this morning on higher bets of December cut.
BoE forecasts mean budget is even more tense, as bank pencils in higher unemployment.

GDP-

It was a crucial day yesterday that didn't really disappoint, sure, volatility remained low, however there was still plenty to talk about. Firstly, the base rate was held at 4.00%, no surprises there, but the vote split of 5-4 (hold-cut) was1 member more dovish than expected.

Screenshot 2025-11-07 085910

Governor Bailey re-iterated rates were on a "steady path of decline", although wanted to see a more established trend of disinflation. He also said that this decision was made through the lens of two major considerations, firstly, CPI itself, which at 3.8% remains much too high and then employment, which is showing sustained signs of weakening.

Indeed, the Bank's own projections foresee just over 1% annual growth and a 5% unemployment rate. All of this suggests a cut in December, provided inflation doesn't rise and weakness in the employment market continues, worsening the medium term GBP outlook.

Markets Today

*Please be aware the below rates represent the market rate at 8:00 AM, contact your Caxton dealer on check online for a live quote.

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