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Daily Market View 31-03-2026

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1:11

The Iran war after a month

1 Minute Market Rundown

The US-Israeli alliance has been fighting Iran for an entire month now, with higher energy prices starting to seem long term
A ground invasion is seeming increasingly likely as Trump moves more troops into the region
Trump restates threat to "totally obliterate Iran" starting with Power Plants

USD -

USD pushes further this morning as the odds of a US ground invasion increase further. Polymarket, an odds provider for current events (with a 96% accuracy rate), has the chance of US troops entering Iran by April 30th at a 67% rate.

All of this suggests a longer war than first anticipated, the 5,000 troops present in the Gulf that would be capable of ground operations are woefully insufficient to subdue a nation of 90 million and so they may be eyeing a more limited objective.

Screenshot 2026-03-31 085435

Even a limited ground operation suggests higher longer term Oil prices and a stronger Dollar. This adds to the Dollar bullish case, positing that that April may even top March in terms of Dollar gains.

Any purchasers of USD may want to bite the bullet ahead of time, as bad as today's rate is, it will only worsen should there be any ground operations.

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*Please be aware the below rates represent the market rate at 8:00 AM, contact your Caxton dealer or check online for a live quote.

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