USD -
USD pushes further this morning as the odds of a US ground invasion increase further. Polymarket, an odds provider for current events (with a 96% accuracy rate), has the chance of US troops entering Iran by April 30th at a 67% rate.
All of this suggests a longer war than first anticipated, the 5,000 troops present in the Gulf that would be capable of ground operations are woefully insufficient to subdue a nation of 90 million and so they may be eyeing a more limited objective.
Even a limited ground operation suggests higher longer term Oil prices and a stronger Dollar. This adds to the Dollar bullish case, positing that that April may even top March in terms of Dollar gains.
Any purchasers of USD may want to bite the bullet ahead of time, as bad as today's rate is, it will only worsen should there be any ground operations.
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