GDP-
It was a crucial day yesterday that didn't really disappoint, sure, volatility remained low, however there was still plenty to talk about. Firstly, the base rate was held at 4.00%, no surprises there, but the vote split of 5-4 (hold-cut) was1 member more dovish than expected.
Governor Bailey re-iterated rates were on a "steady path of decline", although wanted to see a more established trend of disinflation. He also said that this decision was made through the lens of two major considerations, firstly, CPI itself, which at 3.8% remains much too high and then employment, which is showing sustained signs of weakening.
Indeed, the Bank's own projections foresee just over 1% annual growth and a 5% unemployment rate. All of this suggests a cut in December, provided inflation doesn't rise and weakness in the employment market continues, worsening the medium term GBP outlook.
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