September has started well for the Dollar, with the global retreat from sovereign debt benefiting the greenback as it shows it still has some pull as a safe haven at times of risk. On a 10-year basis, September is historically the Dollar's best month, just as cyclical bond concerns tend to return ahead of Q4 government budgets.
That safe-haven pull is being tested from the other direction, though. Yesterday's US JOLTS data — a forerunner of the wider Non-Farm Payroll release due Friday — showed declining vacancies and rising layoffs, adding to signs that the slowdown in the US labour market is intensifying.
This comes as Fed member Rafael Bostic stated yesterday that he thinks only one base rate cut is needed this year, even as the market ticks up its bets towards three cuts this year. Still, given the serious reversal seen in US immigration levels over the past few years, it remains tough to imagine a serious slide in the US unemployment rate, given the reduced supply of workers.
Across the pond, the Pound managed to hold the line in the face of further potential losses, rallying up to the mid-$1.39s. GBP/EUR also scrambled just above 1.15.
The UK budget is set for November 26th, giving the Chancellor time to figure out what she is going to do. It also gives the market ample time to make wild guesses at what she'll announce — and even as Gilt yields take a breather, this story is unlikely to be over for the month.
Please be aware the rates in the table above represent the market rate at 8:00 AM. Contact your Caxton dealer, or check online, for a live quote.
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*Please be aware the below rates represent the market rate at 8:00 AM, contact your Caxton dealer or check online for a live quote.