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A major stumbling block to a broader and more permeant peace settlement to the current Iran war was removed yesterday as Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire. This was described as a non-negotiable for the Iranians, who are naturally keen to keep a hold of their regional influence via proxies. 

This prompted a rebounding President Trump to say that a deal was coming "very soon" and that it was essentially just a case of putting pen to paper. This is almost certainly bluster, but a new round of talks at least seems very likely. 

With major combat operations paused across the region, the sole issue now as markets see it is the Strait. The chart above illustrates just how severe this supply drop has been and has haunting implications for present and future energy prices. 

Naturally, we know that Washington and Tehran are in direct telephone contact, with both sides saying as such. A deal very likely has been brought much of the way to completion and the second in-person negotiation will be more spectacle than diplomacy. The only question now is: when?

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