GBP -
No climbdown from the President on his bizarre embargo on Iranian Oil exports, even as a watershed moment possibly approaches in the form of the Chinese flagged tanker "Rich Starry". There will be some within the administration who will be nervous about seizing a Chinese tanker, after the Chinese have kept relatively quiet hitherto regarding the Gulf situation.
Still, if the President gives the order to let the tanker slip the blockade, it will mark another TACO situation, only with this one with the added humiliation of the Chinese being involved.
In the UK however, most focus is off lofty foreign affairs and more on the practical implications of increased energy prices. US CPI leapt from 2.4% to 3.2% just in the month of March. The UK could be facing an even more serious situation, given our lower level of insulation from such crises. A continued escalation could see UK CPI peak up to 5% by 2026, whilst the baseline suggests a peak just over 3%.
Either way makes for bad reading and the UK reading on the 22nd will make for an interesting data point.
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