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The Pound has been truly out of the news recently, overshadowed by the ongoing conflict, a conflict that traders are so keen to see finished, that Trump just saying "it will be over soon" is enough for some of them. Within the UK, expectations of a Bank of England interest rate cut on the 19th have evaporated, from an initial 75% two weeks ago, to just 11% now.
Of course, this is on account of the ongoing war's impact on the energy market, with the Bank of England likely wanting to wait and see how long this conflict goes on. Another week of fighting and then an end this weekend or even just a partial reopening of the strait of Hormuz, would really aid sentiment.
It seems unlikely to sway the BoE now however, given that there is still likely to be some kind of inflationary impact of this war on the UK, just when inflation had reached its lowest since March of 2025.
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