USD-
It may be sensationalism to describe to today as the most salient of the year so far but it also happens to be a fact with two major calendar events hanging over the Dollar rally.
Firstly, the US Supreme Court decision regarding whether the US can hold legally hold onto its tariff revenue could see multi-billion Dollar refunds given to trading partners, which would naturally act as US bearish.
The Treasury of the United States is estimated to have raked in a significant $200bn of revenue off all tariffs in 2025, returning this revenue would essentially end the most recent tariffs and raise serious uncertainty in the US regarding ongoing onshoring plans.
Secondly, the US jobs report for December releases today, with Non-Farm Payrolls almost always being the biggest release of every month. Unemployment is expected to have slid up from 4.5% to 4.6%, with a modest 70,000 jobs added. Given the strength of this weeks ISM data, it would have to be a big undershoot to seriously damage the USD rally and we would expect more USD strength following the release.
Markets Today
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Major Economic Releases (All times in GMT)
13:30 - US Non-Farm Payrolls Report (December)