Daily Market View

Daily Market View 01/07/2025 | Calm Before the Storm (?)

Written by David Stritch | Jul 1, 2025 10:36:42 AM

Calm Before the Storm (?)

1 Minute Market Rundown

  • Dollar enters very rare 9th consecutive day of losses against the Euro, only the 4th sequence of such since 2008
  • We're waiting for US-EU trade announcements, the Big Beautiful Bill announcements and US-Japanese trade announcements
  • None landed yesterday!

USD- 

There are some days where you can hardly keep up, where you can read the mornings papers, even catch some live news at lunch, but by evening you're totally out of the loop of what's going on.

 

Yesterday was no such day, reflecting the UK weather in being as dry as ash.

There were some things to notice, for example, EURUSD made it only the fourth time since 2009 where the Euro finished on top for 8 consecutive days, with Morgan Stanley setting EURUSD at 1.30 by years end as a target.

Just how far the Dollar can be pushed lower is the main debate at the moment, where is the floor for USD?

In a sense, nowhere, naturally the Fed would intervene in very very extreme cases, especially if the Dollar's very acceptance was waning, but we're talking about unofficial policy here.

The President has thrown his weight behind a weaker Dollar to support manufactures for 40 years now, half his life, he's not going to be alarmed by the 10% or so weakening seen in the broad Dollar this year. And this private pleasure is what leads me to suspect that USD's floor could be much lower than any of us would think.